All Derby’s are hard for the obvious reasons: these youngsters have never gone this far; they haven’t faced this many horses before; likely never have been subjected to 150,000 screaming fans; also likely never to have been banged around as much as they are going to be. You can’t possibly know how any of them are going to react to this kind of pressure and racing conditions. Yet we will make a stab at picking Derby 141 with as much reasoning as we can muster and hope for the best.
TED’S VIEW
FROSTED
He was a solid and promising 2-year old, finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Remsen before heading to the bench but then couldn’t get untracked as a 3. His Holy Bull effort was decent by he was soundly defeated by UPSTART. In the Fountain of Youth he looked very strong until he faded back to 4th in the lane. He was sent off to undergo a throat procedure which was designed to help his breathing from an occasional displacement of the soft palate. If I get any deeper, I’m lost…net/net: he was now breathing better under the stress of exercise.
His first race with the new and improved breathing system was a strong closing win in the Wood Memorial to win by two while posting his best lifetime Beyer Speed Figure (103). Reunited with Joel Rosario for the Derby, Frosted should be able to get decent position while breaking from the 15 spot and shouldn’t have too much work to do when the real running starts. He should be able to get the mile and a quarter, giving trainer Kiaran McLaughlin his first Derby win in his 5th start.
It was hard enough getting to this point, never mind picking the top 4, but here goes nothing:
FROSTED, AMERICAN PHARAOH, FIRING LINE, UPSTART
HEATHER’S VIEW
MUBTAAHIJ
I’m starting my picks with this wild card. Sure, Dubai horses have traditionally not done well in the Derby but they were also prepping on synthetic up until this fella. He seemed a bit lost in his starts over the Newmarket turf, but when he transferred to real dirt at Meydan, he perked up with authority. He broke his maiden in a 2 year old AND UP race, which should tell you something about his development.
His only loss on the dirt was by a grudging head to MAFTOOL in the Group 3 2000 Guineas and he completely dominated this foe in the UAE Derby, accelerating away from him through the lane to win by 8 in a visually impressive win. MUBTAAHIJ is a powerful mover with one of the best trainers in the world, Mike de Kock. De Kock is not known for being reckless in his placement of horses and it is hard to believe that he would ship halfway around the world if he didn’t think he had a real shot at winning.
A final thought on time. I’ve read a lot where MUBTAAHIJ’s times were considered slow and, second for second, that’s true. But he’s the one horse that has come close to running the Derby distance, twice winning comfortably at a mile and 3/16, and the composition of the racetrack – which I have heard nothing about – has to come into play as well. Here in the US we use Beyer figures and BrisNets’s figures (and Rags and Thorograph, etc.) to take into consideration variations from track to track. We have no such measure for Meydan. I trust de Kock to know whether his charge is fast enough to compete in the Derby and I believe his answer is that he shipped and entered him.
MUBTAAHIJ, UPSTART, FROSTED, FIRING LINE
